新年伊始,《中国电力报》记者就“十四五”期间中国电力发展规划等有关问题,再次访谈了清华大学能源与动力工程系教授毛健雄,就在“十四五”和以后一个较长期间中国煤电应当怎样高质量发展的问题进行了讨论.
《中国电力报》: 为了应对气候变化的挑战,中国电力的电源结构将加快升级向低碳的方向发展,但是中国目前还是“以煤为主”的能源结构禀赋的现实,还难以在较短期间内实现煤电大幅度地实现“低碳发展”。
毛健雄: 根据欢乐彩所了解的现在中国各类煤电机组实际的供电煤耗水平,以及现在已经开发出的各种煤电提效、减排和灵活性的创新技术能够达到的煤耗水平,以此为基础,欢乐彩有以下的具体设想和建议供您参考。
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欢乐彩

国家能源局主管    中国电力传媒集团主办单位:欢乐彩_欢乐彩票app客户端-[平台最快线路√]

欢乐彩国煤电高质量发展路在何方

huanlecaiguomeidiangaozhiliangfazhanluzaihefang?

——duihuaqinghuadaxuenengyuanyudongligongchengxijiaoshoumaojianxiong

zhongguodianlixinwenwangjizhe  fengyijun

  xinnianyishi,《zhongguodianlibao》jizhejiu“shisiwu”qijianzhongguodianlifazhanguihuadengyouguanwenti,zaicifangtanleqinghuadaxuenengyuanyudongligongchengxijiaoshoumaojianxiong,jiuzai“shisiwu”heyihouyigejiaozhangqijianzhongguomeidianyingdangzenyanggaozhiliangfazhandewentijinxingletaolun.

  《中国电力报》: 为了应对气候变化的挑战,中国电力的电源结构将加快升级向低碳的方向发展,但是中国目前还是“以煤为主”的能源结构禀赋的现实,还难以在较短期间内实现煤电大幅度地实现“低碳发展”。请问您对今后煤电的发展方向有什么看法?

  maojianxiong: genjuguowangnengyuanyanjiuyuandeyanjiujieguo,ruguoanzhao《balixieding》yaojiangquanqiupingjunwenshengkongzhizhuzai2ocyineideyaoqiu,ze2050nianshijienengyuangongyingjiegouzhong,meitandezhanbizhinengshi4%。zheijiuyiweizhedao2050nianzhongguodenengyuanjiegouzhongbixujibenshangjiangmeitanwanquantaotai,erqiemeidianjiangbixuwanquantuichu。dancongzhongguodenengyuanziyuanyimeiweizhudebingfuxianshikan,dao2050nianzhongguoshixianwanquande“qumeihua”,jiangmeidianfadianliangjiangdidaolingdejianyishibukenengde,yeshibuxianshide。youyuxianzaizhongguomeidiandezhuangjirongliangdetiliangyijingshirucidejuda,2018niandemeidianzongzhuangjirongliangchaoguole10yiqianwa,meidiandefadianliangzhanquanguofadianliangde65%。2019nian,zhongguozhengzaihuanlecaideranmeihuodianjizuzongrongliangwei1.21 yiqianwa。zheiyiweizhejishibuzaizengjiaxinjiandemeidianjizu,zaijinjiniannei,zhongguodemeidianzhuangjizongrongliangjianghuichaoguo12yiqianwa。shiwen,jiangrucijudademeidianzhuangjirongliangquanbuguanting,youshenmedianyuankeyianquan、wending、kekaohelinghuoditidaimeidian。duiyuyigeguojialaishuo,nengyuananquanzhanlveshiguanguojiaanquanfazhandequanju,nengyuandefazhanshizhichiguojiajingjifazhandejichu。yinci,meitandedingweiyidingyaocongnengyuananquan、ditannengyuanhejingjifazhanzhijiandeguanlian,chulihaohuashinengyuanhefeihuashinengyuanzhijiandeguanxi。congnengyuananquandejiaodu,yizongzhuangjirongliangchaoguo10yiqianwadezhongguomeidian,zuoweizhongguodianlide“yacangshi”,meidianzaiyigexiangdangzhangdeshiqineibixujixujinxingkechixudegaozhiliangfazhan。

  ciwai,ranmeifadianshizuiqingjiegaoxiaodeyongmeifangshi,2018nian,huanlecaiguoyuanmeichanliang36.8yidun,xiaofeiliang39yidun,fenbiezhanyicinengyuanshengchanhexiaofeide69.6%he59%,danzhongguomeidiandeyongmeibizhongzhizhanquanguomeitanxiaofeizongliangde50.6%,budanyuandiyufadaguojiarumeiguo(meidianyongmeibizhongzhan91%)、jinghezuzhiguojia(zhan80.2%)、oumengguojia(zhan76.2%),erqiediyushijiepingjunbizhong(67.2%)。yinci,ruguonenggoudadatigaodianmeizaiquanguomeitanzongxiaohaozhongdebizhong,zaigongjicezuidaxiandudijiangmeitanyongyugaoxiaoqingjiefadian,zaixuqiucejiangdianlizuidaxiandudiyongyujiaotong(huochehediandongqichedeng)、gongyeheminyongdengyiqiekenengdelingyu,zhenzhengshixianzhongguodequanmian“dianqihua”,zheijianghuidadacujinzhongguodejingjizhuanxinghegaishanrenmindeshenghuoshuipingjihuanjingkongqizhiliang。ruguozhongguodianmeizaiquanguomeitanzongxiaohaozhongdebizhongnenggoudadaoshijiepingjunshuipingde67.2%huogenggao,budannenggouyouxiaodijiejuemeitanchanshengdewuran,erqiekeyixianzhujiangdiyouyushiyongmeitanerchanshengdetanpaifang。suoyi,congduizhenggemeitangenggaoxiaoqingjieliyongerxudafudutigaomeitanyongyufadianbizhongdejiaodu,yebuyinggaiyebukenengdafudujiantuinaizhiwanquantingyongmeidian。

  jiyuyishangliyou,yujidao2050nian,weilezhichengzhongguozai“dierge100nian”dadaozhongdengfadaguojiamubiaodejingjifazhanduidianlidegengdaxuqiu,quanguodianlizongzhuangjirongliangyoukenengxuyaodadao30yiqianwa,erqie,jishizainengyuanzhuanxingxuyaochixuxiaojianmeitanxiaofeizongliangdeqingkuangxia,zhongguorengranxuyaozaidianlixitongzhongweichi13-14yiqianwademeidianzhuangjirongliang。

  《中国电力报》: 今年是“十三五”收官之年,也是从明年开始的“十四五”进行规划准备之年,因此,请问在“十四五”期间和以后,对煤电高质量发展的问题,您的设想是什么?

  maojianxiong: huanlecaixiangshouxiantantanhuanlecaiduizhongguomeidiangaozhiliangfazhandeyixiekanfa。shouxian,shenmeshi“meidiandegaozhiliangfazhan”,huanlecaidekanfashi,meidiandegaozhiliangfazhandeneirongkeyibaokuohenduo, rufazhan“shuzihua、zhihuihua、wulianwanghua”dengdeng,danshi,huanlecairenwei,meidiangaozhiliangfazhan,zhongdianyinggaishiduiyingyumeidiansuomianlindezuizhuyaotiaozhanbingjiayijiejuedefazhan,yejiushi:

  yingduiqihoubianhuade“ditanfazhan”;

  yingduigenggaozhilianghuanjingyaoqiude“qingjiefazhan”;

  yingduikeyouxiaoxiaonazhengzaidalifazhandekezaishengnengyuandianlixuqiudeanquan、wending、gaoxiao、dipaifangdidafududiaojiefuhede“linghuoxingfazhan”。

  mianduihuanlecaiguochaoguo10yiqianwazaiyimeidianjizudezhei“sandatiaozhan”,meidianyinggaibalaogaozhiliangfazhandedingli,tongguochuangxinjishu,duisuoyouzaiyimeidianjizujinxingshixianshangshu“sangefazhan”dejishugaizao,dadaogenggaodebiaozhun,zheijiushimeidiandegaozhiliangfazhan。

  《中国电力报》: 您所谈到的煤电高质量发展的三大目标,即“低碳发展”、“清洁发展”和“灵活性发展”,特别是其中的“低碳发展”,您有没有更加具体的设想和建议?

  maojianxiong: meitanshigaotannengyuan,yaodadaomeidianxiangkezaishengnengyuanfadianneiyangdeditanpaifang,xianzaichulecaiyongdabilideshengwuzhihunshaohuoshengwuzhizhuanhuan,huocaiyong“tanbuhuoyumaicun(ccs)”jishuwai,jiangmeidiandetanpaifangqiangdujiangdidaoxiaoyu100keco2/qianwashideditanshuipingshibukenengde,erzai“shisiwu”qijian,daguimocaiyongshengwuzhihunshaohuocaiyongccslaidafudujiangdimeidianeryanghuatanpaifangyeshibuxianshide。yinci,zai“shisiwu”naizhi“shiwuwu”he“shiliuwu”deweilaishiwunianqinei,meidiankenengde“ditanfazhan”lujingwufeishiliangtiao: yishirumouxierenjianyideneiyang,cong“shisiwu”kaishijiudafududizhubuguantingtuichumeidianrongliang,zhizhi2050nianjiangmeidianquanbuguanting。ershizaidangqianshiwunianqinei,shouxiantongguochuangxinjishushixianmeidiangaozhilianggaizao,yidadaozuidaxianduditigaomeidianxiaolvhejiangdigongdianmeihao,yihou,zaizhubufuyishengwuzhihunshaoyijianshaomeitanyongliang。tebieshi,dao2050nian,nulitongguo30niandefendou,jiadayanfa“tanbuhuo、liyongyufengcun(ccus)jishudelidu,ruguonenggouzuodaodafudujiangditanbuhuodechengben,tongshicaiyongchuangxincuihuajishu,nenggoudaguimoliyongbuhuodeco2zuoweiyuanliao,zhizaogaojiazhidehuaxuepin,rujiachun、xiting、fangting、qiyou、jiasuan、kejiangjiesuliaodeng。zheiyang,meidianchangbuhuodeeryanghuatan,jiubuxudaguimomaicunerkezhijieyoujiazhidiliyong,zemeidiandejinlingtanpaifangjiuyoushixiandekeneng。yinci,zaizhongguoyiranshi“yimeiweizhu”denengyuanjiegouxingshixia,chuleshaoshuxiaorongliang、gaopaifang、dixiaolvdelaojizubixuerqieyinggaituichubingguantingwai,jijinde“wanquanqumeidianhua”jueduibushimeidian“ditanfazhan”dexuanxiang。zongjieyishang,zaidangqian,zhiyouyitiaochulu,jiushiyixianyouyijingjingguoshijianjianyanguodegezhongmeidiantixiaohelinghuoxingdechuangxinjishuweijichu,zhenduigezhongbutongleixingherongliangdengjidemeidianjizu,tichu“ditan”、“qingjie”、“linghuoxing”deshengjigaizaodejuti“lianghua”zhengceyaoqiu, tongguozhengcequdong,tuijinhuanlecaiguochaoguo10yiqianwarongliangdemeidianjizu,cong“shisiwu”kaishideyige10-15niandeqijianjinxinggaozhiliangshengjigaizao。genjuqingzhonghuanji,cong“shisiwu”qi,lijiqidongyalinjiejizudegaizao;cong“shiwuwu”qi,quanmianqidongchaolinjiejizu,baokuodixiaochaochaolinjiejizudegaizao;cong“shiliuwu”qiquanmianqidongchaochaolinjiejizudegaizao。

  《中国电力报》: 您的建议是,从“十四五”开始,经过三个五年计划的15年期,完成中国的全部煤电容量的高质量升级改造。您有没有中国煤电高质量升级改造具体量化目标,以使其能够体现出是“高质量发展”?

  maojianxiong: genjuhuanlecaisuolejiedexianzaizhongguogeleimeidianjizushijidegongdianmeihaoshuiping,yijixianzaiyijingkaifachudegezhongmeidiantixiao、jianpaihelinghuoxingdechuangxinjishunenggoudadaodemeihaoshuiping,yiciweijichu,huanlecaiyouyixiadejutishexianghejianyigongnincankao:

  duiyuzaiyiyalinjiejizu:

  (1)dui30wandengjideyalinjiejizu,shengjigaizaohoudeedinggongkuangxiagongdianmeihaoxudiyu285kebiaomei/qianwashi,nianpingjungongdianmeihaoxudiyu295kebiaomei/qianwashi,wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofeng“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defuhefanwei。

  (2)dui60wandengjideyalinjiejizu,shengjigaizaohoudeedinggongkuangxiagongdianmeihaoxudiyu280kebiaomei/qianwashi,nianpingjungongdianmeihaoxudiyu290kebiaomei/qianwashi,wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofengde“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defuhefanwei。

  jinzaoqidongchaolinjiejizujidixiaochaochaolinjiejizudegaoxiaohuagaizaoshidian,zai“shiwuwu”qianwanchengjiandingjiquelizuigaizhongzaomubiao:

  (1)dui35wandengjidechaolinjiejizu,yuanzeshangshengjigaizaohouchunninggongkuangxiadeedinggongkuanggongdianmeihaoxudiyu275kebiaomei/qianwashi,nianpingjungongdianmeihaoxudiyu285kebiaomei/qianwashi,wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofeng“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defuhefanwei。

  (2)dui60wandengjidechaolinjiejizu,yuanzeshangshengjigaizaohoudeedinggongkuangxiagongdianmeihaoxudiyu270kebiaomei/qianwashi,nianpingjungongdianmeihaoxudiyu280kebiaomei/qianwashi,wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofeng“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defuhefanwei。

  duiyuzaiyiyicizairechaochaolinjiejizu,yuanzeshangshengjigaizaohouedinggongkuangxiagongdianmeihaoxudiyu263kebiaomei/qianwashi,nianpingjungongdianmeihaoxudiyu273kebiaomei/qianwashi;wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofeng“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defuhefanwei。

  duiyuzaiyiercizairechaochaolinjiejizu,yuanzeshangshengjigaizaohoudeedinggongkuanggongdianmeihaoxudiyu255kebiaomei/qianwashi,nianpingjungongdianmeihaoxudiyu265kebiaomei/qianwashi;wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofeng“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defanwei。

  duiyushaoliangxinjianmeidianjizu: bixucaiyongzuixianjindeercizairechaochaolinjiejishu,caiyongdejishuyaobixunenggoushixianshejigongdianxiaolvjiejinhuodadao50%,shejigongdianmeihaodiyu250kebiaomei/qianwashi,wuranwupaifangdadaojinlingpaifang;buyongyouanquanwendinggaoxiaodipaifangdefuhediaofengde“linghuoxing”nenglixudadao20%-100%defuhefanwei。

  duisuoyoumeidianzaiyijizu,zai“shisiwu”qijianxuwanchengwuranwupaifangshengjigaizao,cong“chaodipaifang”shengjidao“jinlingpaifang”,ji

  1)fenchen: 0 - 1haoke/biaomi

  2)eryanghualiu: diyu10haoke/biaomi

  3)danyanghuawu: diyu20haoke/biaomi

  《zhongguodianlibao》: nindeshangshumeidiangaozhiliangshengjigaizaojianyidejutimubiaokanlaimenjianfeichanggao,duiyuxianyouzaiyidegezhongleixingherongliangderanmeijizudegezhongyaoqiuyoukenengshixianma?

  maojianxiong: genjuhuanlecailejiedeqingkuang,shixianshangshugaozhiliangshengjigaizaodemeihao、paifanghediaojiexingjutimubiaoyaoqiu,shiyouyidinggenjude。shijishang,shangshusuoyouduiyugezhongleixingherongliangmeidianjizudemeihao、paifanghediaojiexingyaoqiudeshengjigaizaomubiao,yiyougezhongxiangguanchuangxinjishuhesilu,bingyijingyouchenggongdeanli。youdeanlidejieguoyijingguoyoudisanfangshouquanjigouzhengshiceshishujuhuozhuanjiapingshenhejiandingjieguo,jubeilekeyizaiquanguoxiangguanmeidianjizuzhongjinxingtuiguangdetiaojian。keyishexiang,ruguoshangshujianyinenggoudeyishishi,chaoguo10yiqianwademeidiankeyijiangdidegongdianmeihao,jiangshiyigejudadejianmeishuzi,yeshiyigejudadeeryanghuatanjianpaishuzi,zheishizaiyizhongguodexianshiguoqingweijichu,baozhengzhongguonengyuananquanheshixianhuanlecaiguoyimeiweizhudehuashinengyuanyutaiyangnengjifengdianweizhudefeihuashinengyuanxiediaofazhan,xianghubuchong,xiangdeyizhang,zuizhongzouxiangshixian“balixieding”tanjianpaimubiaoxianshikexingdemeidiangaozhiliangfazhandaolu。

  shangshuduichaoguo10yiqianwadezhongguozaiyimeidiangaozhiliangfazhanshengjigaizao,shiyigejudadexitonggongcheng,yujixuyaojingguo2zhi3gewunianjihuaqijiannenggoushixian,yinci,bixuanzhaoqingzhonghuanji,fenpifenqi,tongguoshidian,zhubuwancheng。zhongguomeidiangaozhiliangshengjigaizaodexianhoucixuyinggaishi: ①yalinjiejizu;②chaolinjiejizu;③yicizairechaochaolinjiejizu;④ercizairechaochaolinjiejizu,yicituijin。duiyuxinjiandezuixianjinercizairechaochaolinjiejizu,zegenjuxuyaoerding,dangqianzhongdianyingfangzaizaiyimeidianjizudeshengjigaizao,congyalinjiejizukaishi。

  zai“shisiwu”qijian,zhongguomeidiangaozhiliangshengjigaizaodezhongdianyinggaishizaiyideyalinjiejizu,zheishiyinwei,xianyoudeyue3.5yiqianwadeyalinjiejizushidangqianhuanlecaiguomeidianjizuzhonggongdianmeihaozuigaodejizu,tongshiyeshifuhediaojielinghuoxingjiaochadejizu,julejie,xianzainenggouanquanwendingdadao35%dedifuhelinghuoxingnenglideyalinjiejizuzhanbihaihenxiao。danxiangbiyudarongliangdezhiliuguoluchaolinjiehechaochaolinjiejizu,rongliangjiaoxiaodeqibaoguoluyalinjiejizu,gengjiashiheyudiaofenglinghuoxingyunxing,yinci,dangqianmeidianjizudegaozhiliangshengjigaizao,yingcongyalinjiejizuqibu,tongshi,youtiaojianyouxuqiudeshaoliangchaolinjiehechaochaolinjiejizudeshengjigaizaoyekeshidianjinxing。ruguozai“shisiwu”qijianyou50%yishangdeyalinjiejizudeshengjigaizaodeyishixian,neijiushishuo,zheixieyalinjiejizuconggaizaoqiandenianpingjungongdianmeihao330ke/qianwashi(30wanqianwadengji)tishengdaogaizaohoude295ke/qianwashi,zemeidudiankejiangdigongdianmeihao35ke,yejiushibazheixieyalinjiejizuyixiazitishengdaochaochaolinjiejizudeshuiping,budankedafudujianshaomeitandeshiyonghedafudujiangdieryanghuatandepaifang,bingkeshixian20%-100%dedafanweifuhediaojiedelinghuoxing,congerkedadacujinkezaishengnengyuandianlidexiaonanengli。

  danshi,yaonenggoushixianshangshumeidiandeditan、qingjiehelinghuoxinggaozhiliangfazhanshengjigaizaodemubiao,bujinjinshijishuwenti,guojiadezhengcequdongshiguanjian。2014nian,sanbuweifabude《meidianjienengjianpaishengjiyugaizaoxingdongjihua(2014-2020)》,tongguozhengcequdong,shizhongguomeidianzaiyuewuniandeshijiannei,jibenshixianlehuanlecaiguomeidiandewuranwuchaodipaifang,shizhongguochengweishijieshangmeidianpaifangzuiqingjiedeguojia。zheishitongguoguojiazhengcequdong,shixianzhongguomeidianqingjiefazhandeyigejihaodeanli。yinci,“shisiwu”zhongguomeidianzaiyijizugaozhiliangfazhanshengjigaizaoyeyinggaixiang《xingdongjihua》neiyang,zhenduibutongdiqu,butongrongliangheleixingjizu,tichujutibutongdeshengjigaizaoshixianyaoqiuhe“meihao、paifang、diaojiexing”dejutigaizaomubiaoyaoqiu。anzhaoshixianyaoqiuwanchengshengjigaizaodejizu,qigaizaojieguojingxujingguoyangedeyanshoukaohe,duiyuanshidabiaodejizu,yaoyoujilijianglizhengcedeguli。tongshiyaocaiquzhengceshouduan,duiyuxujiademeihao、paifanghelinghuoxingnenglishujuhebunengwanchengshengjigaizaohuobunengdabiaodejizu,yeyinggaiyouzhengcechulideyaoqiu。

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