欧洲相对较低的天然气价格正在形成新的常态,根据预测,这种价格水平在未来还将持续很长一段时间。
欧洲天然气价格下降原因欧洲天然气价格下跌有以下几个原因。
首先,价格骤降可以解释为欧洲冬季和春季较为温和的天气条件使储气库保持着较高的天然气存量。
数据显示,2019年欧洲储气库中天然气存量不曾低于440太瓦特,几乎是2018年最低存量(约190太瓦特)的2.5倍。
其他原因则更具系统性和长期性特点,这其中包括液化天然气新建产能投运,欧洲能源供给多元化的趋势,俄罗斯和美国对欧供应天然气的竞争日益激烈,亚洲液化天然气价格下降,以及地区能源系统向可再生能源转型。
自2018年9月以来,亚太地区液化天然气价格一直下降,到2019年6月底已降至161.1美元/千立方米,降幅60%。
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欧洲天然气价格下降原因及未来预期

  nengyuanqingbaoyanjiuzhongxin yangyongming/yi

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  欧洲天然气价格下降原因

  ouzhoutianranqijiagexiadieyouyixiajigeyuanyin。shouxian,jiagezhoujiangkeyijieshiweiouzhoudongjihechunjijiaoweiwenhedetianqitiaojianshichuqikubaochizhejiaogaodetianranqicunliang。shujuxianshi,2019nianouzhouchuqikuzhongtianranqicunliangbucengdiyu440taiwate,jihushi2018nianzuidicunliang(yue190taiwate)de2.5bei。qitayuanyinzegengjuxitongxinghezhangqixingtedian,zheiqizhongbaokuoyehuatianranqixinjianchannengtouyun,ouzhounengyuangongjiduoyuanhuadequshi,eluosihemeiguoduiougongyingtianranqidejingzhengriyijilie,yazhouyehuatianranqijiagexiajiang,yijidiqunengyuanxitongxiangkezaishengnengyuanzhuanxing。

  quanqiuyehuatianranqishichangfazhanzhengzaijitianranqijiagedailaiyanzhongyali。rujin,yehuatianranqishichangchuxianjidazhuyaoqushi。diyi,zaieluosi、meiguo、aodaliyadengguo,yehuatianranqixinjianchannengluxutouyun。guojinengyuanshuzai《2018niantianranqishichangbaogao》zhongzhichu,yuji2018~2023nianjian,shijiegedijihuatouyundechukoudaoxiangxingyehuatianranqichangzongchannengjiangchaoguo1400yilifangmi。yehuatianranqijijidezengzhangtaishidaozhitianranqiziyuanjiagexiajiang。dier,kaolvdaoouzhouguojianengyuangongjiduoyuanhuadexuqiuhenengyuangongyingshangduoyuanhuadezhengceqingxie,yehuatianranqizaiqitianranqigongyingzhongdezhanbi、zaiqinengyuangongyingjiegouzhongdediweijiangyousuoshangsheng。2019niandiyijidu,ouzhoujinkoudeyehuatianranqishuliangyuquniantongqixiangbizengzhangle126%。disan,zairiyizengzhangdeouzhoutianranqishichangshang,eluosihemeiguodejingzhengzhujianjiaju,zheiwuyijitianranqijiagedailaixiaxingyali。anzhaomuqianyehuatianranqidepingjunjiagejisuan,congmeiguodaoouzhoudechuhuoliangchuyuyinglishuipingdexiaxian,jihuyiwufafugaiqiyunyingchengben。

  yazhouyehuatianranqishichangbianhuayeshiouzhoutianranqijiagexiadiedezhongyaoyuanyinzhiyi。zi2018nian9yueyilai,yataidiquyehuatianranqijiageyizhixiajiang,dao2019nian6yuediyijiangzhi161.1meiyuan/qianlifangmi,jiangfu60%。zheizhuyaoshiyehuatianranqigongyingzengjiahexuqiuzanshijianshaoyinqide。

  欧洲天然气价格展望

  tongguoguanchaouzhoutianranqiqihuoshichangjiagezhishu,zhizhi2019niandidoubuhuichuxianmingxiandejiagehuisheng。yujikenengchuxianjijiexingdejiagezengzhang,danmuqianlaikan,zhangfuhuidiyuquniantongqishuiping。laizigegejigoudeyucedoubushihenleguan。ruyingguoshangye、nengyuanhegongyezhanlvebu(beis)yuce,2020nianhououzhoutianranqijiagecaihuizhubushangzhang,bingqiezhizhi2025nianyihoucainengdadao2018niandejiageshuiping。

  guojiyuanyoujiagedejinyibugongguyouzhuyuouzhoutianranqijiagehuifu,danyuanyoujiagetongchanghuizhihoujigeyuecainengfanyingdaotianranqijiageshanglai。bingqiezhuanjiaduiyoujiadeyuqibingbuleguan,zuijijideyucerenwei,2020nianyoujiajiangzai2019nianyucejichushangzengzhangbuchaoguo6%。

  haiyinggaizhichudeshi,tianranqijiageyuedi,kezaishengnengyuanxinjianzhuangjijiuyuewuliketu,muqiankezaishengnengyuanchengben(jutirutubiaosuoshi)haibuzuyiyutianranqijingzheng。ciwai,zaibuqingjiedemeitanhexiangduigengqingjiedetianranqizheiliangzhongranliaozhijianyecunzaizhejingzheng。

  oumengtanchengbendechixuzengzhang(2019nian7yuewei28ouyuan/dun,zi2018niannianchuyilaizengjiale250%)jiasumeitantaotaijincheng,jinerzengjiatianranqixuqiu。meitanhetianranqizhijiandejiagechajuyezaijianxiao。lifayangejinzhiranmeifadiankenenghuituidongtianranqijiageshangzhang,dangran,zaikezaishengnengyuanzhuangjibuduanzengzhangdeqingkuangxia,taotaidemeidianyekenenghuibeikezaishengnengyuanfadianqudai。 

  guanyumeiguoheeluosizaitianranqichukoulingyuriyizengjiademaoyijingzheng,helanjinronghuanlecaijutouingrenwei,ouzhoutianranqijiagehenyoukenengwendingzaizuyishimeiguoyehuatianranqiwuliketudeshuiping,zheiyijiageshuipingyuguyuewei161meiyuan/qianlifangmi(13.6ouyuan/zhaowashi)。xiangbizhixia,shijieyinxingdeyucejiaoweileguan,renweizaijiexialaidejinianliouzhoutianranqijiagejiangweichizai214meiyuan/qianlifangmizuoyou。

  zongheshangshusuoyouyuce,yujiouzhoutianranqijiagedimitaishiweilaihaijiangchixuhenzhangyiduanshijian。juzhuanjiajieshao,jinguancunzaiyixiefusujixiang,danruguomeiyoujiduandeshichangchongji,zaiweilailiangnianneitianranqishichangjiangwufahuifudao2018niandepingjunjiaweishuiping。

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